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Wednesday, June 13, 2007

From the lancet

Findings

Against the predictions of the linear logistic model, neither all-cause nor cardiovascular deaths depended on systolic blood pressure in a strictly increasing manner. The linear logistic model was rejected by the Framingham data. Instead, risk was independent of systolic blood pressure for all pressures lower than a threshold at the 70th percentile for a person of a given age and sex. Risk sharply increased with pressure higher than the 80th percentile. Since systolic blood pressure steadily increases with age, the threshold increases with age, but more rapidly in women than in men.

Intrepretation

The Framingham data contradict the concept that lower pressures imply lower risk and the idea that 140 mm Hg is a useful cut-off value for hypertension for all adults. There is an age-dependent and sex-dependent threshold for hypertension. A substantial proportion of the population who would currently be thought to be at increased risk are, therefore, at no increased risk.

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